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Did Waddell Get Enough?

ilya2As of last night, the marquee free agent of 2010, Ilya Kovalchuk, is now a New Jersey Devil. Atlanta Thrashers GM Don Waddell could not come to terms on a contract extension with the Russian superstar, and vowed to maximize his return on his investment. That return? 28 year old blueliner John Oduya, 22 year old winger Nicklas Bergfors, 19 year old junior Patrice Cormier, and the Devils 2010 1st round pick. The Devils also received Anssi Salmela and the two teams swapped 2nd rounders.

But did Waddell get enough for his star player? Waddell insisted on getting players that could help his team now. John Oduya has some decent ability on the back end but only has a few seasons of NHL experience. He’ll definitely be an asset for the Thrashers, but with Tobias Enstrom, Pavel Kubina and Zach Bogosian ahead of him, I can’t imagine Oduya will be an impact player for them. Patrice Cormier has been suspended for the remainder of the season after a questionable hit on Mikael Tam in a QMJHL game, and at only 19, will take some time before he makes the team.

The wildcard in the deal undoubtedly becomes Nicklas Bergfors. Drafted 23rd overall in the 2005 NHL draft, Bergfors has the potential to become a solid offensive option on the wing for the Thrashers. He’s got 27 points, good for 5th on the Devils, and should see more ice time in Atlanta with the departure of Kovalchuk. If Bergfors can turn into a 60-70 point guy for the Thrashers you can almost justify this move by Waddell. The Devils’ 1st round pick this year should be in the bottom 10 of a down draft.

So what happened exactly that led to this situation? It seems that Kovalchuk simply wanted out of Atlanta, as they offered him $101 million over 12 years, the second most lucrative contract in NHL history (next to Ovechkin’s) and that wasn’t enough. They offered him $10 million per season for 7 seasons, and that wasn’t enough. Simply put, Atlanta is too small of a market. Kovalchuk stands to make significantly more in merchandising and endorsement revenues by jumping to a big market team, or the allure of the KHL could send him home where he could make tax-free millions.

As many as 8-10 teams were “in” on Kovalchuk earlier this week, until Waddell publicly announced the terms of the contracts that were offered. I believe that in doing so, Waddell may have shot himself in the foot. Waddell refused to let teams negotiate with Kovalchuk’s agent on a contract extension, which, while preventing Waddell from being handcuffed to only a few teams, also meant that his offers weren’t going to be as high. But once the terms of Kovalchuk’s other contract offers were exposed, most NHL teams knew that he would be a rental and that they could not land him for 7, 8 or perhaps even 9 million in the off season.

In the salary cap era, the days of getting a swath of players for a rental are over. NHL GM’s have learned from previous mistakes like the Peter Forsberg and Ryan Smyth deadline deals, and many aren’t willing to put up those kinds of assets in return for short-term help. While there is a chance Kovalchuk re-signs with the Devils, I think if he was willing to turn down that much money in Atlanta, that perhaps New Jersey isn’t big enough for him either. He will definitely test the market and the KHL to explore all of his options, and I would take it to the bank that Kovalchuk makes it to July 1st.

As for the fallout, we can reasonably expect it to be huge. Those teams that were in on Kovalchuk but didn’t get him are going to have to turn to the trade market to find more offensive help. With only a few teams being designated sellers at the moment, the best offensive help available seems to be Toronto’s Alexei Ponikarovsky and Carolina’s Ray Whitney, and the price for each has just gone up. Now that the Devils have added a major piece for their Cup run, you have to imagine that other Eastern Conference contenders like Washington, Pittsburgh, Ottawa and Buffalo are going to start feeling the pressure to add to their squads as well.

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6 Responses to " Did Waddell Get Enough? "

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  5. Rob C says:

    I think if they resign him long term, what they gave up was worth it.

    If he’s a rental, man oh man, they gave up alooooot for a rental.

    I think we’ve seen alot of panicking recently and it shouldn’t be a surprise. With all these 3 point games, the standings are tighter than ever and a March 3rd deadline may feel to many GMs like that’s too late to make a push. Also facotr in the Olympics and some teams going through losing streaks and you’ve got a good few moves that seem to be made impatiently.

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